What is a market regime?
The market regime is the macro backdrop crypto trades in. In a risk-on regime, money flows towards riskier assets like tech stocks and crypto. In a risk-off regime it retreats to safety. Bitcoin rarely moves in isolation, so knowing which backdrop you're in helps explain moves that have nothing to do with crypto news.
What we measure
- Bitcoin's 30-day correlation with the Nasdaq 100: positive means Bitcoin is trading like a tech stock.
- Its correlation with the US dollar index: negative means Bitcoin tends to rise when the dollar weakens.
- Its correlation with the VIX: negative means Bitcoin falls when stock-market fear rises.
- Its correlation with gold, and the Bitcoin-to-gold price ratio.
- Net liquidity: the Federal Reserve's balance sheet minus the reverse repo facility and the Treasury's cash account. Rising liquidity has historically been a tailwind for risk assets.
How the label is decided
Each condition adds points, up to 8: Bitcoin tracking the Nasdaq (+2), moving against the dollar (+2), net liquidity rising over 4 weeks (+2), moving with gold (+1) and moving against the VIX (+1). 7–8 is Strong Risk-On, 5–6 Risk-On, 3–4 Neutral, 1–2 Mixed and 0 Risk-Off. A confidence figure shows how many inputs are available, how much they agree and how fresh the data is.
Kept separate from Alt Season
This is context only. It doesn't feed the Alt Season Score, so the two can be read independently. Data comes from FRED (Nasdaq 100, VIX, dollar index and the liquidity series) and Binance (Bitcoin, and tokenised gold for the gold price), and refreshes every 6 hours.
Related guides
Frequently asked questions
What is a market regime?
The macro backdrop crypto is trading in: risk-on or risk-off, read from cross-asset correlations and liquidity conditions.
What does risk-on mean for Bitcoin?
That Bitcoin is trading as a risk asset in a supportive backdrop: moving with tech stocks, against the dollar, with liquidity rising.
How is the label calculated?
A 0–8 points score from Bitcoin's correlations with the Nasdaq, the dollar, the VIX and gold, plus the 4-week trend in net liquidity.
Is this part of the Alt Season Score?
No. It's deliberately kept separate as display-only macro context.
How often does it update?
Every 6 hours. Most of the macro data publishes once a day.