The one-sentence version
Technical analysis (TA) is the study of price and volume to estimate where an asset is likely to go next. Instead of asking “what is this project worth?” (that's fundamental analysis), TA asks “what are buyers and sellers actually doing right now?”
Why it works — and when it doesn't
Every candle on a chart is a record of real human decisions: fear, greed, conviction, panic. Patterns repeat because behaviour repeats. TA works best in liquid markets with lots of participants (like BTC); it's far less reliable on thin, easily-manipulated microcaps.
TA is about probabilities, not certainties. No pattern wins every time. The edge comes from repeating a high-probability action and managing risk when you're wrong.
The three classic assumptions
- Price discounts everything — news, fundamentals and sentiment are already in the price.
- Price moves in trends — moves tend to persist until something changes them.
- History rhymes — recurring patterns reflect recurring psychology.
What this series covers
Candlesticks → support & resistance → trends & structure → volume & momentum → patterns & confluence. Each part builds on the last, so start here and work up. 🎓