Crypto’s favourite cosmic trading rule, tested against every lunar cycle since 2017.
Ask around crypto long enough and someone will share the secret: buy the new moon, sell the full moon. The theory — borrowed from old trading folklore — says markets turn euphoric and top out around the full moon, then bottom near the new moon.
It sounds poetic. But does Bitcoin actually obey the Moon? We ran the numbers.
What we tested
We took Bitcoin’s daily closing price across its liquid trading era — 17 Aug 2017 to 28 Jun 2026, about 8.9 years — and lined it up against 109 full moons and 110 new moons, calculated from the 29.53-day synodic cycle. For each cycle we measured two half-moon “runs”:
- 🌕 Into the full moon — BTC’s return over the ~14.8 days from the previous new moon up to the full moon (the waxing half).
- 🌑 Into the new moon — the return over the ~14.8 days from the previous full moon to the new moon (the waning half).
What Bitcoin actually did
| Phase run | Avg | Median | BTC rose | BTC fell |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🌕 Into the full moon | +2.5% | +1.5% | 56.9% | 43.1% |
| 🌑 Into the new moon | +2.1% | −0.1% | 49.5% | 50.5% |
Why the Moon “works” until it doesn’t
Here’s the catch that fools every lunar backtest: Bitcoin goes up. A lot. Over this period it returned roughly +1,290%. That means any random ~15-day window averages a gain — about +2.3% — with or without the Moon. Both halves of the lunar cycle are simply riding that same tide. Subtract Bitcoin’s natural drift and the “lunar edge” dissolves into noise.
Could you actually trade it?
We compared two moon-timing strategies against simply doing nothing:
- 🌑→🌕 Hold only the waxing half (new→full): +413%
- 🌕→🌑 Hold only the waning half (full→new): +220%
- 💎 Just buy & hold the whole time: +1,290%
Both moon strategies badly underperformed holding — because each one sits in cash for half of Bitcoin’s climb. The Moon didn’t time the market; it just took you out of it.
So, is the Moon a secret Bitcoin indicator? No — and that’s exactly how we treat the cosmic stuff here: a fun lens, not an edge. If you enjoy the esoteric angle, our Astrology lab maps eclipses, zodiac seasons and lunar phases against real price history.
Got a trade the stars supposedly blessed — or cursed? Share your story with the community on the blog.
Method: BTC daily closes (Binance) 2017-08-17→ 2026-06-28; 109 full / 110 new moons from the 29.53-day synodic cycle. Past performance is not predictive. Entertainment, not financial advice.